Paul Ryan's budget plan -- painful predictions, but are they true?

David Brooks has gone over the top in praising Paul Ryan's budget plan, out today.  He calls it "amazing" that the Chairman of the House Budget Committee would consider taxes in his budget plan, while failing to mention that the plan lowers tax rates for the top earners in the country -- in other words, the rich.  I find Mr. Ryan's plan to be mostly political posturing by a Republican who may have Presidential ambitions, but Mr. Brooks finds it to be a "moment of truth."  After looking through the plan for about an hour, I have to admit it sets out some serious issues with the budget that people really ought to know.  However, it relies on outsized projections to arrive at its most serious claims -- meaning that the website is flashy, and the statistics are scary, but even Mr. Ryan may have to admit that the statistics are mostly based on trends that no one can really predict.  In 10 years, the projections may have flip-flopped, as they did from 2000, when the federal government was running a surplus, to today.  

A direct quote from one official budget document dated 2000 states: "The 2000 Budget forecasts surplus for decades to come, if we maintain the policy of fiscal discipline and strategic investments in the American people." -- sorry I can't link to the actual document, but it's in a government database, so it's difficult to link to

So, I hope people take this plan with a HUGE grain of salt, especially since the Republicans in Congress seem to be looking to shut down government again.