Moderates unite!

While I predict that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate in this election cycle by one vote, the biggest shift in the Senate will still be from moderate to conservative.

There are 37 seats up for election this year out of 100 total seats in the Senate.  Of those 37 seats, 19 belong to Democrats and 18 belong to Republicans.  However, many Republican seats are considered "safe," while Democrats are in danger of losing 10 or 11 seats.  I predict they will lose 9.  Here are the Democratic seats I think Republicans will win this year, in alphabetical order by sitting Senator:

• Evan Bayh's seat (D-Indiana) goes to Dan Coats (R)
• Michael Bennet's seat (D-Colorado) goes to Ken Buck (R)
• Ronald Burris's seat (D-Illinois) goes to Mark Steven Kirk (R)
• Chris Dodd's seat (D-Connecticut) goes to Linda McMahon (R)
• Byron Dorgan's seat (D-North Dakota) goes to John Hoeven (R)
• Russ Feingold's seat (D-Wisconsin) goes to Ron Johnson (R)
• Blanche Lincoln's seat (D-Arkansas) goes to John Boozman (R)
• Harry Reid's seat (D-Nevada) goes to Sharron Angle (R)
• Arlen Specter's seat (D-Pennsylvania) goes to Pat Toomey (R)

In addition to those 9 seats, there are 3 seats currently held by Republicans who will probably be replaced by more conservative Senators:

• Robert Bennett's seat (R-Utah) goes to Mike Lee (R)
• Judd Gregg's seat (R-New Hampshire) goes to Kelly Ayotte (R)
• Lisa Murkowski's seat (R-Alaska) goes to Joe Miller (R)

I predict only two moderates will be re-elected this year:

• Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont)
• John McCain (R-Arizona)

And I can list only three Republican moderates (judging mostly by geography) who will not face election this year :

• Scott Brown (R-Massachusetts)
• Susan Collins (R-Maine)
• Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)

Again judging mostly by geography, I can find about 14 moderate Democrats and 1 possible new Republican moderate, Mark Steven Kirk of Illinois. That brings the total number of moderates in the new Senate to about 20, or one-fifth of the entire Senate.  Previously, they were about one-third of the Senate, if you can trust my estimations.

This analysis is bad news for the country.  The ideological divide is likely to widen over the next two years, not decrease.  Moderates will be increasingly marginalized, except for the few "swing votes" on critical issues, whose role in the decision-making is probably overblown by the media.

Of course, my analysis is not air-tight.  I'm guessing in my descriptions of moderates based primarily on geography, so I could be way off base.  We'll see, come election day, whether any of my predictions come true, and hopefully, the next two years won't be as bad as I expect they might be.